Digging Deeper...

This past November’s early snowfall may have signaled the approach of a particularly snowy winter for Kansas. This is a year of El Niño, a climate pattern that historically results in Kansas seeing more precipitation than usual, noted Matthew Sittel, Kansas State University Department of Agronomy and assistant K-State climatologist, in a report published November 16, 2023. For drought weary farmers and ranchers heading into the Christmas Holidays and the upcoming planting season, this was a tiding of comfort and joy. But there was also a coal-stuffed stocking to tamper this good news.  “I won’t say it’s a certainty,” Sittel said, “but there’s  a 99% chance that all of eastern Kansas, north, north-central, central Kansas will still be in drought conditions by April 1.”  
Excerpted, edited by Dennis McLaughlin, McLaughlin Writers LLC. Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Service, National Center for Atmospheric Research, U.S. Drought Monitor; Topeka Capital-Journal,December 1, 2023 Tim Hrenchir, December 1, 2023; Kansas Reflector

Will El Nino Bring More Rain?

The arrival of El Nino – officially on June 8 of last year – has been eagerly anticipated by the agricultural industry, looking for relief from a disastrous drought that has persisted in some parts of the U.S. for some 22 years, according to the journal Nature Climate Change. Early maps released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that California and Nevada could face above-average precipitation this winter, while Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and other southeastern states could encounter high levels of precipitation.

“The phrase El Nino can conjure up images of horrendous weather – severe storms in the southern U.S. and droughts in Asia and Africa,” wrote Allison Kite in the Kansas Reflector for Kansas and Missouri, El Nino is a months-long weather pattern that typically brings warm winters and extra precipitation to the central U.S., she says, adding, “It brings hope.”

Aaron Harries, vice president of research and operations for Kansas Wheat, said the possibility of more rain and snow brought on by El Nino is welcome news. “Anything better than what we’ve had the last three years is good news,” Harries told the Reflector. 

The National Center for Atmospheric Research has gone so far as to predict the current period would be a ‘Super El Nino’ event. Matthew Sittle, K-State climatologist, says, “As it turns out, a Super El Nino could indeed be a hero for Kansans.”

Zachary Leasor, Ph.D., University of Missouri assistant professor of climate science, is in step with Sittle.  “The possibility of more precipitation is cause for optimism,” he says. “Over the course of the drought, Missouri has built up long-term precipitation deficits and so it needs significant rain or snow to catch up.” 

Missouri sits on a divide between the south, which typically gets above-average precipitation in an El Nino year and the north, which sees less, making it difficult to predict if the state will get drought relief. “Hopefully that forecast does hold because that would be good news for drought improvement,” he said.

Still Struggling

A year ago, more than half of Kansas was in an extreme or exceptional drought, the most severe label given by the U.S. Drought Monitor. While it has eased, most of the state is still experiencing some level of drought. USDA reported in July that Kansas’ winter wheat production fell 15% from 2022. Bushels of wheat per acre fell from 32 to 27. Recently USDA  reported sorghum, a more drought-tolerant cereal crop, was planted in much higher quantities this year and the harvest was forecast to be 47% larger than last year’s. “While the situation is not as severe in Missouri,” reports Allison Kite in the Reflector, “just over half of the state remains in a lingering drought.”

Another USDA survey reported 62% of livestock producers in Missouri are short or very short on hay and roughage supplies, and 43% are short or very short on stock water. Huge swaths of the state have soil moisture levels far below historical averages. Corn yields are down 10% compared to 2022.

While Kansas and Missouri farmers and ranchers might have high hopes for El Nino, they know that a couple extra inches of rain or snow won’t solve a 12-inch shortfall in drought-stricken parts of their states. As Shawn Tiffany, past president of the Kansas Livestock Association with cattle operations in Morris, McPherson and Lyon counties quips: “There’s an old joke in Kansas that you’re never more than 30 days away from a flood or a drought. It’s just that the flood continues to be 30 days out on the horizon.”

Cause For Optimism

According to a National Weather Service forecast issued December 1, 2023, more than 90% of the state of Kansas is likely to see above-average precipitation over the months of December, January and February. A swath of territory along the northeast and east-central Kansas corridor bordering Missouri – which generally receives less precipitation than the rest of the state – could see above-average rain or snow. But the NWS hedged a bit, saying equal chances for below-average precipitation along that strip always exists. 

Matthew Sittel explains that El Nino has historically brought above-average rainfall and snowfall to Kansas. He points to NWS data showing Kansas has endured 73 winters since 1950. Twenty-one of those winters jibed with an El Nino event. Another 19 winters hosted a La Nina, while 33 winters were visited by neither. 

This year's El Nino is expected to bring more precipitation to most of Kansas. On average, NWS sees Kansas receiving 2.72 inches of precipitation over the months of December, January and February. That compares to an average 2.48 inches during a La Nina winter and 2.34 inches during neutral winters.

While a snowier winter is looking likely this year, NWS reminds farmers and ranchers “that rain and snowfall amounts are not the same.”  Snowfall totals are reported as the amount of liquid water the snow produces upon melting, explains the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations. "An old rule of thumb is that for every ten inches of snow, there should be 1 inch of water – a 10:1 ratio," NOAA says. However, NOAA’s recent surveys of the Upper Midwest indicate that a 12:1 ratio might be more representative.

Using the equation of one inch of precipitation for every 10 to 12 inches of snow, notes Sittel, the extra 1.15 inches of precipitation Kansas could see on average during a Super El Nino winter – which this is shaping up to be – equates to between 11.5 inches and 13.8 inches of additional snow. But Sittel says these figures are averages, pointing out that not every Kansas winter during a Super El Nino has brought above-average precipitation. "Still, the averages suggest reason to be optimistic should a Super El Nino occur," he said. 

It’s a different story in Missouri. “The Show Me state tends to be somewhat of a transition state when we look at the impacts of El Nino across the country during the winter season,” says Pat Guinan, climatologist with the University of Missouri Extension Commercial Agriculture Program. The odds for above, below and near-normal temperatures and precipitation for much of Missouri are equal. Or as Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center, puts it: “El Nino nudges the odds in favor of certain outcomes, but never ensures them.” So we’ll wait and see.