Ag Outlook Forum 2025 Takes Aim At Ag Challenges

Jim Barcus Photos

The 11th annual Ag Outlook Forum, presented by Agri-Pulse Communications and the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City, brought together a full lineup of industry leaders, policymakers, and producers to discuss the outlook for agriculture in the year ahead. While there are exceptional challenges, Agri-Pulse founder and publisher Sara Wyant noted that there are also “lots of opportunities” for the ag industry if it can keep pace with policy changes and economic uncertainties.

Among the roster of speakers were several lawmakers and federal agency heads. Keynoter USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced her department was adding another $2 billion in payments to row crop producers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, on top of the $8 billion ECAP has already disbursed to farmers. But she was adamant that none of these payments would go to cattle producers. And no USDA funds would be going to green energy.

Secretary Rollins lamented the demographic shift over the last 250 years. In 1776 farmers represented 90% of the American population. Now crop farmers and food animal producers account for just 1%. “When agriculture is under threat [from regulation, trade disparities and disputes, etc.],” she said, “America is, too.” She added, “A republic without agriculture is no republic at all.”

Alex Sayago, Vice President of Marketing & Shared Services at John Deere, was optimistic about the ag future over the long run. “I’m bullish,” he said. “We always find a way out of downturns.” Sayago explained that John Deere is working to make its tools accessible for farmers who are always looking to reduce labor costs. Part of the company’s growth strategy is to develop technology that can be retrofitted onto existing equipment. The savings to farmers could be as much as 56%.

Learning The Ropes

In her words to Forum attendees, U.S. Representative Sharice Davids, Kansas 3rd District, quipped that when she was first elected to the U.S. Congress in 2018, she didn’t know what a row crop was. Since then she has been immersed in developing her ag IQ. Rep. Davids said she strives to go about her job in a “bipartisan manner.” And, she noted, that Kansas Senator Pat Roberts served as a mentor. “He showed me how things got done in Congress.” Rep. Davids said that working with congressional colleagues from across the aisle seems to be easier when issues and policy involve agriculture. Talking about Kansas’s farming and ranching roots, she remarked that “our ag background is not just about business and the economy – agriculture is our community.”

Kansas Senator Roger Marshall described a futuristic ag economy based on regenerative agriculture. He believes farmers in the not-too-distant future could “make as much, maybe more, from carbon credits than they would selling corn.” Senator Marshall also suggested farmers endeavor to keep their soil healthy, using precision agriculture and reducing their use of fertilizers and pesticides.

Like several of the presenters, Senator Marshall is a champion of year-round E15. “I think E15 should be the number-one priority of the administration right now.” He added that anyone and all advocate groups who care about agriculture, should be making ag issues their number-one ask of the White House. “If you think that trade is going to solve all woes, I think you’re wrong.” The focus, he stressed, needs to be turning commodities into protein or biofuels.

Taxes Still Befuddling

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, 2025 made some previous tax provisions permanent and added some new tax rules. Participants on the panel discussing Everything You Need to Know About New Tax Law Changes said experts are still digesting the contents and changes. It’s always important to remember that permanent in the tax code just means until Congress changes it.  Also, some of these provisions can be implemented in 2025; others will take effect in 2026.  One impactful change for farmers is the return of bonus depreciation and the increase to Section 179 expense claims. Although bonus depreciation is back, it's a bit tricky. To qualify, the asset must be acquired and placed into service after January 19, 2025. So, if you signed a contract to buy a tractor on January 10, 2025, and it's delivered April 25, it would not qualify for 100% bonus depreciation. Panelists included Harrison Pittman, Director of the National Agricultural Law Center, Roger McEowen, Washburn University School of Law and Paul Neiffer, Farm CPA Report. At this point in time, these experts offered this advice: Don’t be aggressive; be patient.

Ag and Livestock Markets

USDA’s Chief Economist Seth Meyer reported that total ag industry cash receipts for 2025 are forecast to increase to $535.2 billion. But declining cash crop (corn, soybeans, wheat) receipts will lower total crop revenue to $236.6 billion. Receipts for most animals and animal products will be higher this year. Exacerbating the situation is that while receipts are dwindling, costs are rising. In particular, high prices for key production inputs are squeezing margins. “Many farmers have been losing money on every acre,” said Meyer.  As livestock inventory has been constrained, dollars-per-hundredweight have increased, giving ranchers something of a windfall.  Dairy producers are enjoying lower feed costs, but market prices are trending lower and that will pinch margins.

Meyer noted that the Kansas City Fed reports there is widespread concern from banks about falling farmer income. “With mounting losses, farmers seek greater credit to operate,” he said. But if they are short on cash, farmers could see that their performance on existing credit is likely to be compromised.  Weakening loan payment performance and diminishing prospects for income, Meyer explained, would probably disqualify farmers from obtaining additional credit.

On The Bright Side

No doubt much of the conversation that took place at the Ag Outlook Forum offered a heavy helping of pessimism.  "We know that agriculture in our country is under threat," Secretary  Rollins said. "But we also know that the Administration is looking at the long-term fix – the complete realignment of the world economy around American agriculture and American goods.” Time is of the essence, though. “There are bills that are due this month as we move into harvest.” There are loans, too, that have to be secured in the next eight to 12 weeks so farmers  can plant next year’s crops. “There are mouths to feed,” she explained. “We have to make some difficult decisions right now, and I do not have a silver bullet." While recognizing that U.S. agriculture is "under threat,” Secretary Brooke Rollins told agricultural leaders that farming's future "could not be brighter."

However, obstacles keep emerging to test the mettle of the USDA secretary and the ag industry. U.S. farmers and ranchers are on high alert as New World Screwworm cases in Mexico continue to rise. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has warned it’s not a matter of if — but when — the pest makes its way back into the U.S. According to an NCBA spokesperson: “The increase of cases reported in Mexico shows that New World screwworm is still a very present threat. We need to continue full steam ahead with all possible prevention and mitigation tools. This includes securing the funding that Secretary Rollins has announced for a domestic sterile fly facility coupled with increased surveillance and screening measures.”

At about the same time the Agri-Pulse Communications/Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City Ag Outlook Forum was getting underway September 25, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House Oval Office said more aid would be coming soon to farmers. “We're going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we're going to give it to our farmers who are—for a little while—going to be hurt," said President Trump. "So we're going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape."